HIDDEN HALF

This book advances three ideas or arguments. The first is that we need to face up more readily to the many mysteries and surprises that humble human understanding.

The second idea then, is to put aside questions of rationality for a moment, and also put aside labels like chance and noise. Instead, we will dig into this hidden half of enigmatic variation, see it as a positive force for disruption, and try to discover a little more about how it works to undermine what we think we know.

Third idea : If we know and can know less than we think, if the world falls into line less readily than we suppose, what do we do?

12 tactics to cope :

1. Experiment and adapt.

Experiment is likewise often reasonable in policy - with the same provisos: if it works, carry on, if it doesn't, stop.

2. Triangulate.

If we are going to experiment, we had better do it right, more aware of the potential pitfalls.

4.Get some negative capability.

Poet John Keats wrote of 'negative capability is when a man is capable of being in uncertainties, mysteries, and doubts’. Keats suggested that negative capability was an artistic virtue. The author suggesting it is also a scientific one. It is the capability to resist the temptation to grasp too hastily at mere hints of knowing.

The idea of negative capability overlaps with another: the ability to refrain from 'the rage to conclude', to borrow another expression, this time from the writer Gustave Flaubert, who said: “The rage for wanting to conclude is one of the most deadly and most fruitless manias to befall humanity”

5. When it's a bet, remember... it's a bet.

We are almost always betting on our knowledge. Neither theory nor experience, nor principles nor experiment can protect us from the enigmatic variable.

6. Communicate the uncertainty.

All claims are not equally uncertain. Some are downright incredible. Some are more suspect than others. The point is that the grey spectrum is bigger than we might assume. We should communicate in the language of uncertainty.

7. Govern for uncertainty.

Uncertainty is sometimes used as a justification for limited government, but it does not demand that we give up. 'Less is more' is not an argument for nothing at all. It is exactly what it says: an argument for more efficacy, for houses of brick not mansions of straw. Where we do find real, robust evidence, we might have strong justification to act.

8.Manage for uncertainty.

The approach in this book is consistent with a variety of existing business ideas that make some effort to embrace this uncertainty rather than deny it.

9. Don't use probability to disguise ignorance.

Probability - no matter how sophisticated - cannot represent future unknowns. Big-scale probabilities can also be meaningless at a human scale. We should tell it how it is by conveying probabilistic knowledge as if it mattered to people at the level of their own lives. Used wisely, probability will often be the best knowledge we have. We should accept this, but never forget its limitations.

10. Change metaphors.

Metaphors can decisively shape thinking, and machine-like metaphors often dominate our mental models of causality. Pull this lever, reach this tipping point, change the world.

11. Treasure your exceptions.

Exceptions are like the rough brickwork of a growing building which tells that there is more to come and shows where the next construction is to be.

12. Relax.

You are not the master of a world that can turn causes on a pinhead. If you try to bully this world into obedience in the belief that you leave nothing to chance, you will not only be insufferable, you will fail. Be rigorous, of course, as rigorous as you can. Be as determined as you like. Sometimes it will pay off. But beyond that, chill. It's not in your hands, or in your head. It's out there, in a half beyond your dominion. It will do what it will do, and you might never know why.

This is my 50th book and the last book of the year 2023.